Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nanjing Monkey King, while the market favors Qingdao Eagles (76%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Qingdao Eagles (-15.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nanjing Monkey King (67%) · Nanjing Monkey King at 25¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Nanjing Monkey King
6
Nanjing Monkey King 67%
$1.4K
-$36.65
44.5¢ → 24.5¢
-45% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNanjing Monkey King at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Qingdao Eagles 76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Nanjing Monkey King. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Qingdao Eaglesavg 58¢ | $624.21 | $613.44 | -$10.76 | 53% 306-271 (577) |
NO NotradecopyCTR | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 43¢ | $343.57 | $343.57 | +$0 | 60% 2987-2000 (4987) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 43¢ | $291.65 | $291.65 | -$0 | 59% 3050-2105 (5155) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 52.5¢ | $139.33 | $114.17 | -$25.16 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 45.2¢ | $21.25 | $20.22 | -$1.03 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $5.8 | +$0.3 | 36% 12900-22608 (35508) |
Invested
$624.21
Value
$613.44
PnL
-$10.76
Record
53%
306-271 (577)
Invested
$343.57
Value
$343.57
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
2987-2000 (4987)
Invested
$291.65
Value
$291.65
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
3050-2105 (5155)
Invested
$139.33
Value
$114.17
PnL
-$25.16
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.25
Value
$20.22
PnL
-$1.03
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$0.3
Record
36%
12900-22608 (35508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.