Qingdao Eagles vs. Nanjing Monkey King
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Qingdao Eagles (67%) · Qingdao Eagles at 99¢ · $636 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Qingdao Eagles
6
Qingdao Eagles 67%
$635.73
-$17.04
92.2¢ → 99¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidQingdao Eagles at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LS LSS1 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 91.6¢ | $414.54 | $407.36 | -$7.18 | 71% 1281-512 (1793) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Qingdao Eaglesavg 97¢ | $103.48 | $101.35 | -$2.13 | 59% 13855-9624 (23479) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 11.9¢ | $97.2 | $81.82 | -$15.38 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 87.4¢ | $40.22 | $41.4 | +$1.18 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 12¢ | $2.22 | $2.1 | -$0.12 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
 VeryLucky888 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 84.7¢ | $170.48 | $1.7 | +$6.6 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
Invested
$414.54
Value
$407.36
PnL
-$7.18
Record
71%
1281-512 (1793)
Invested
$103.48
Value
$101.35
PnL
-$2.13
Record
59%
13855-9624 (23479)
Invested
$97.2
Value
$81.82
PnL
-$15.38
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
Invested
$40.22
Value
$41.4
PnL
+$1.18
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.22
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.12
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
VeryLucky888Invested
$170.48
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$6.6
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.