Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ningbo Rockets vs. Jilin Northeast Tigers: O/U 168.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 50¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$4.7K
-$243.67
49.8¢ → 50¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LZ lzh1 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$325 | 43% 440-590 (1030) |
PP ppku6298 | Overavg 50¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$64.73 | 40% 57-85 (142) |
CH chongchong37 | Underavg 51¢ | $461.51 | $440.54 | +$0 | 50% 71-72 (143) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 47.8¢ | $94.91 | $98.19 | +$2.93 | 57% 24224-18647 (42871) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.8¢ | $54.94 | $59.8 | +$3.71 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $39.97 | $38.39 | -$0.78 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $7.71 | $24.67 | +$16.96 | 48% 409-440 (849) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $17.58 | $17.21 | -$0.37 | 58% 37320-27172 (64492) |
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$325
Record
43%
440-590 (1030)
Invested
$1,618.27
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$64.73
Record
40%
57-85 (142)
Invested
$461.51
Value
$440.54
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
71-72 (143)
Invested
$94.91
Value
$98.19
PnL
+$2.93
Record
57%
24224-18647 (42871)
Both legs:
Invested
$7.71
Value
$24.67
PnL
+$16.96
Record
48%
409-440 (849)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$17.58
Value
$17.21
PnL
-$0.37
Record
58%
37320-27172 (64492)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.