Spread: Jilin Northeast Tigers (-7.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ningbo Rockets (20%) · Ningbo Rockets at 54¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 26

Jilin Northeast Tigers46¢Ningbo Rockets54¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ningbo Rockets

Consensus Traders

Ningbo Rockets 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$308.83

Research grade

AvoidNingbo Rockets at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ningbo Rockets

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jilin Northeast Tigers46%

Ningbo Rockets54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ningbo Rockets1 trader

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares9,927

Combined PnL+$604.65

Jilin Northeast Tigers4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares9,590

Combined PnL-$295.82

Ningbo Rockets — 20%Jilin Northeast Tigers — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuentinChen	Ningbo Rocketsavg 56.4¢	$5.6K	$6.2K	+$604.65	45% 232-284 (516)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 44.1¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$296.95	50% 2030-2044 (4074)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 41¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$31.16	66% 3288-1668 (4956)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 45.5¢	$910	$880	-$30	47% 2159-2396 (4555)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 47.4¢	$49.03	$47.6	-$1.43	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
└ Jilin Northeast Tigers leg	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 47.4¢	$30.83	$27.3	-$3.53
└ Ningbo Rockets leg	Ningbo Rocketsavg 52¢	$18.2	$20.3	+$2.1
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 48.1¢	$31.65	$31.62	-$0.03	50% 16195-16429 (32624)

QuentinChen

Ningbo Rockets

Invested

$5,599.62

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$604.65

Record

45%

232-284 (516)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$1,971.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$296.95

Record

50%

2030-2044 (4074)

Bagwell306CTR

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$1,253.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$31.16

Record

66%

3288-1668 (4956)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$910

Value

$880

PnL

-$30

Record

47%

2159-2396 (4555)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$49.03

Value

$47.6

PnL

-$1.43

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

Both legs:

Jilin Northeast Tigers$30.8347.4¢-$3.53

Ningbo Rockets$18.252¢+$2.1

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$31.65

Value

$31.62

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

16195-16429 (32624)

Research grade

AvoidNingbo Rockets at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Ningbo Rockets

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ningbo Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.