Ningbo Rockets vs. Jilin Northeast Tigers

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jilin Northeast Tigers (60%) · Jilin Northeast Tigers at 67¢ · $400 held · ends Nov 2

Ningbo Rockets34¢Jilin Northeast Tigers66¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Consensus Traders

Jilin Northeast Tigers 60%

Total Value

$400.27

Combined PnL

$12.28

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 66.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJilin Northeast Tigers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jilin Northeast Tigers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ningbo Rockets34%

Jilin Northeast Tigers67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jilin Northeast Tigers3 traders

Total Value$271.15

Total Shares400

Combined PnL-$2.95

Ningbo Rockets2 traders

Total Value$129.12

Total Shares380

Combined PnL+$15.23

Jilin Northeast Tigers — 60%Ningbo Rockets — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JI jiafan	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 67¢	$138.95	$136.93	-$2.02	60% 1402-928 (2330)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 67¢	$87.78	$86.47	-$1.31	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
VeryLucky888CTR	Ningbo Rocketsavg 31.5¢	$336.95	$81.73	+$11.05	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Jilin Northeast Tigersavg 66.4¢	$46.96	$47.75	+$0.38	57% 23656-18201 (41857)
QU QuentinChenCTR<$100	Ningbo Rocketsavg 31¢	$43.21	$47.39	+$4.18	45% 245-294 (539)

jiafan

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$138.95

Value

$136.93

PnL

-$2.02

Record

60%

1402-928 (2330)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$87.78

Value

$86.47

PnL

-$1.31

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

VeryLucky888CTR

Ningbo Rockets

Invested

$336.95

Value

$81.73

PnL

+$11.05

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Jilin Northeast Tigers

Invested

$46.96

Value

$47.75

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

23656-18201 (41857)

QuentinChenCTR<$100

Ningbo Rockets

Invested

$43.21

Value

$47.39

PnL

+$4.18

Record

45%

245-294 (539)

Research grade

AvoidJilin Northeast Tigers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Jilin Northeast Tigers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jilin Northeast Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.