Jiangsu Dragons vs. Fujian Sturgeons

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jiangsu Dragons (33%) · Jiangsu Dragons at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3

Jiangsu Dragons56¢Fujian Sturgeons44¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jiangsu Dragons

Consensus Traders

Jiangsu Dragons 33%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$97.49

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidJiangsu Dragons at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jiangsu Dragons

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jiangsu Dragons56%

Fujian Sturgeons45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jiangsu Dragons2 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares10,987

Combined PnL+$94.06

Fujian Sturgeons4 traders

Total Value$994.14

Total Shares2,167

Combined PnL+$3.43

Jiangsu Dragons — 33%Fujian Sturgeons — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jiangsu Dragons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFujian Sturgeons 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedFujian Sturgeons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fujian Sturgeons 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuentinChen	Jiangsu Dragonsavg 55.2¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	+$91.22	46% 304-351 (655)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 44.5¢	$890	$900	+$10	47% 2366-2633 (4999)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 47.3¢	$44.85	$45.74	+$0.89	58% 27838-20469 (48307)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 72.6¢	$40.19	$30.61	-$9.58	52% 291-264 (555)
VeryLucky888CTR	Fujian Sturgeonsavg 44.5¢	$137.82	$17.78	+$2.12	58% 40340-29132 (69472)
HRTrading<$100	Jiangsu Dragonsavg 28.9¢	$6.38	$9.22	+$2.84	54% 2513-2131 (4644)

QuentinChen

Jiangsu Dragons

Invested

$6,054.53

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$91.22

Record

46%

304-351 (655)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$890

Value

$900

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

2366-2633 (4999)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$44.85

Value

$45.74

PnL

+$0.89

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$40.19

Value

$30.61

PnL

-$9.58

Record

52%

291-264 (555)

VeryLucky888CTR

Fujian Sturgeons

Invested

$137.82

Value

$17.78

PnL

+$2.12

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

HRTrading<$100

Jiangsu Dragons

Invested

$6.38

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$2.84

Record

54%

2513-2131 (4644)

Research grade

AvoidJiangsu Dragons at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Jiangsu Dragons

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jiangsu Dragons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFujian Sturgeons 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedFujian Sturgeons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fujian Sturgeons 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jiangsu Dragons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.