Spread: Beijing Royal Fighters (-8.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Guangzhou Loong Lions (17%) · Guangzhou Loong Lions at 55¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Guangzhou Loong Lions
6
Guangzhou Loong Lions 17%
$9.3K
$22.83
Research grade
AvoidGuangzhou Loong Lions at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU QuentinChen | Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 55.8¢ | $5.7K | $5.7K | +$15.59 | 46% 304-351 (655) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 44¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$0.48 | 50% 2443-2430 (4873) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 44¢ | $880 | $880 | +$0 | 47% 2366-2633 (4999) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 44¢ | $220 | $227.5 | +$7.5 | 59% 3980-2819 (6799) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 45.2¢ | $89.55 | $89.92 | +$0.65 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 45.9¢ | $116.68 | $65.26 | -$1.39 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
Invested
$5,661.4
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$15.59
Record
46%
304-351 (655)
Invested
$2,330.06
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$0.48
Record
50%
2443-2430 (4873)
Invested
$880
Value
$880
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2366-2633 (4999)
Invested
$220
Value
$227.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
59%
3980-2819 (6799)
Invested
$89.55
Value
$89.92
PnL
+$0.65
Record
58%
27838-20469 (48307)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$116.68
Value
$65.26
PnL
-$1.39
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
QuentinChen
Guangzhou Loong Lions — $5.7K
0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3
CTRBeijing Royal Fighters — $2.3K
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
CTRBeijing Royal Fighters — $880
Bagwell306
CTRBeijing Royal Fighters — $227.5
LeLynxMalynx
CTRBeijing Royal Fighters — $89.92
VeryLucky888
CTRBeijing Royal Fighters — $65.26