Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Beijing Royal Fighters

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Beijing Royal Fighters (75%) · Beijing Royal Fighters at 76¢ · $983 held · ends Nov 3

Guangzhou Loong Lions24¢Beijing Royal Fighters76¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Beijing Royal Fighters

Consensus Traders

Beijing Royal Fighters 75%

Total Value

$983

Combined PnL

-$11.31

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 76¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Royal Fighters at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Royal Fighters

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Guangzhou Loong Lions24%

Beijing Royal Fighters76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Beijing Royal Fighters6 traders

Total Value$925.68

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL+$3.8

Guangzhou Loong Lions2 traders

Total Value$57.32

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$15.11

Beijing Royal Fighters — 75%Guangzhou Loong Lions — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 72.7¢	$523.91	$536.52	+$12.61	50% 2208-2217 (4425)
poshposh	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 74.6¢	$210.95	$220.46	+$9.51	61% 8644-5579 (14223)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 75.8¢	$78.51	$81.75	+$3.24	50% 9393-9316 (18709)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 74¢	$43.64	$45.7	+$2.06	47% 2260-2508 (4768)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 26.8¢	$60.46	$45.11	-$15.35	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 81¢	$51.03	$31.5	-$19.53	52% 267-243 (510)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Guangzhou Loong Lionsavg 25¢	$11.97	$12.21	+$0.24	50% 12215-12358 (24573)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 71¢	$13.83	$9.74	-$4.09	50% 10912-11060 (21972)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$523.91

Value

$536.52

PnL

+$12.61

Record

50%

2208-2217 (4425)

poshposh

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$210.95

Value

$220.46

PnL

+$9.51

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

SnakeBall<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$78.51

Value

$81.75

PnL

+$3.24

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$43.64

Value

$45.7

PnL

+$2.06

Record

47%

2260-2508 (4768)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$60.46

Value

$45.11

PnL

-$15.35

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$51.03

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$19.53

Record

52%

267-243 (510)

sentrioCTR<$100

Guangzhou Loong Lions

Invested

$11.97

Value

$12.21

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

12215-12358 (24573)

LuckyLoo<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$13.83

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$4.09

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Royal Fighters at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Royal Fighters

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Beijing Royal Fighters wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.