Tofas vs. Petkim Spor
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Tofas (100%) · Tofas at 64¢ · $396 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Tofas
3
Tofas 100%
$396.32
-$2
65.8¢ → 64¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTofas at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LS LSS1 | Tofasavg 69.3¢ | $296.47 | $273.92 | -$22.55 | 71% 1285-513 (1798) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Tofasavg 57¢ | $64.98 | $72.92 | +$12.54 | 66% 2855-1497 (4352) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Tofasavg 60¢ | $87.26 | $49.48 | +$8.01 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.