Anadolu Efes vs. Korfez Basket
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anadolu Efes (80%) · Anadolu Efes at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Anadolu Efes
5
Anadolu Efes 80%
$1.2K
$12.42
84.4¢ → 94.3¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidAnadolu Efes at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Anadolu Efes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KL kleomarcus | Anadolu Efesavg 84¢ | $698.67 | $706.99 | +$8.32 | 62% 1507-908 (2415) |
LS LSS1 | Anadolu Efesavg 85¢ | $408.24 | $408.34 | +$0.1 | 71% 1278-512 (1790) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Anadolu Efesavg 85¢ | $52.54 | $46.76 | +$2.1 | 53% 2364-2105 (4469) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Korfez Basketavg 15.4¢ | $46.51 | $30 | +$1.91 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
US User7429<$100 | Anadolu Efesavg 85¢ | $16.53 | $16.53 | +$0 | 57% 5893-4406 (10299) |
Invested
$698.67
Value
$706.99
PnL
+$8.32
Record
62%
1507-908 (2415)
Invested
$408.24
Value
$408.34
PnL
+$0.1
Record
71%
1278-512 (1790)
Invested
$52.54
Value
$46.76
PnL
+$2.1
Record
53%
2364-2105 (4469)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$46.51
Value
$30
PnL
+$1.91
Record
58%
31536-22821 (54357)
Invested
$16.53
Value
$16.53
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
5893-4406 (10299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.