Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Chemnitz 99, while the market favors Wuerzburg (81%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Wuerzburg vs. Chemnitz 99
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Chemnitz 99 (50%) · Chemnitz 99 at 19¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Chemnitz 99
6
Chemnitz 99 50%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
$259.38
32.4¢ → 19¢
-41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidChemnitz 99 at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Wuerzburg 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Chemnitz 99avg 31.3¢ | $1.8K | $2.3K | +$442.03 | 50% 9398-9322 (18720) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Wuerzburgavg 47.3¢ | $678.22 | $915.34 | +$237.12 | 48% 412-442 (854) |
| └ Wuerzburg leg | Wuerzburgavg 47.3¢ | $499.92 | $645.04 | +$145.12 | |
| └ Chemnitz 99 leg | Chemnitz 99avg 25.7¢ | $178.3 | $270.3 | +$92 | |
LS LSS1 | Wuerzburgavg 66¢ | $811.15 | $374.85 | -$130.21 | 71% 1476-589 (2065) |
UP UpTheBlues | Wuerzburgavg 63¢ | $288.9 | $272.28 | -$16.62 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Chemnitz 99avg 52¢ | $145.08 | $108.81 | -$36.27 | 50% 17615-17950 (35565) |
 poshposh<$100 | Wuerzburgavg 60¢ | $38.24 | $38.87 | +$0.64 | 61% 8687-5628 (14315) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Chemnitz 99avg 39¢ | $3.28 | $3.08 | -$0.19 | 55% 2171-1792 (3963) |
Invested
$1,808.78
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$442.03
Record
50%
9398-9322 (18720)
Invested
$678.22
Value
$915.34
PnL
+$237.12
Record
48%
412-442 (854)
Both legs:
Invested
$811.15
Value
$374.85
PnL
-$130.21
Record
71%
1476-589 (2065)
Invested
$288.9
Value
$272.28
PnL
-$16.62
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
Invested
$145.08
Value
$108.81
PnL
-$36.27
Record
50%
17615-17950 (35565)
poshposh<$100Invested
$38.24
Value
$38.87
PnL
+$0.64
Record
61%
8687-5628 (14315)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.08
PnL
-$0.19
Record
55%
2171-1792 (3963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.