Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Phoenix Hagen vs. Basketball Loewen Braunschweig: O/U 181.5

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 43¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$130.76

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 43¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,478

Combined PnL+$130.76

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA BayupatiCTR	Underavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$90.43	50% 155-157 (312)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$49.98	68% 3146-1513 (4659)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Underavg 46¢	$592.48	$586.04	-$6.44	65% 2717-1462 (4179)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$520.79	$499.34	-$21.45	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$388.72	$368.47	-$20.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$132.07	$130.87	-$1.2
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 50.4¢	$59.86	$59.5	-$0.36	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 48.2¢	$24.21	$22.91	-$1.3	58% 1363-997 (2360)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$59.38	$12.74	-$1.86	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.83	$5.14	+$0.31	47% 1955-2177 (4132)

BayupatiCTR

Under

Invested

$2,170.32

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$90.43

Record

50%

155-157 (312)

Bagwell306CTR

Under

Invested

$1,199.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.98

Record

68%

3146-1513 (4659)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Under

Invested

$592.48

Value

$586.04

PnL

-$6.44

Record

65%

2717-1462 (4179)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$520.79

Value

$499.34

PnL

-$21.45

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

Both legs:

Under$388.7248¢-$20.25

Over$132.0755¢-$1.2

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.86

Value

$59.5

PnL

-$0.36

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.21

Value

$22.91

PnL

-$1.3

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.38

Value

$12.74

PnL

-$1.86

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.83

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.31

Record

47%

1955-2177 (4132)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.