Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Basketball Loewen Braunschweig, while the market favors Phoenix Hagen (59%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Phoenix Hagen vs. Basketball Loewen Braunschweig
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Basketball Loewen Braunschweig (50%) · Basketball Loewen Braunschweig at 42¢ · $414 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Basketball Loewen Braunschweig
4
Basketball Loewen Braunschweig 50%
$414.1
$33.32
34¢ → 41.5¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBasketball Loewen Braunschweig at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Phoenix Hagen 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BB bbb17367162806CTR | Basketball Loewen Braunschweigavg 34¢ | $165.07 | $203.91 | +$38.84 | 49% 96-101 (197) |
BA Bayupati | Phoenix Hagenavg 58¢ | $135.63 | $135.63 | +$0 | 50% 160-158 (318) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Phoenix Hagenavg 64.9¢ | $78.99 | $73.29 | -$5.7 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Basketball Loewen Braunschweigavg 36¢ | $1.09 | $1.27 | +$0.18 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$165.07
Value
$203.91
PnL
+$38.84
Record
49%
96-101 (197)
Invested
$135.63
Value
$135.63
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
160-158 (318)
Invested
$78.99
Value
$73.29
PnL
-$5.7
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.27
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.