FC Bayern Munchen vs. Hamburg Towers
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FC Bayern Munchen (75%) · FC Bayern Munchen at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
FC Bayern Munchen
4
FC Bayern Munchen 75%
$2.9K
-$141.31
97.3¢ → 89.7¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidFC Bayern Munchen at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | FC Bayern Munchenavg 97.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$201.41 | 50% 8825-8766 (17591) |
LS LSS1 | FC Bayern Munchenavg 94.5¢ | $409.02 | $388.08 | -$20.94 | 71% 1287-514 (1801) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Hamburg Towersavg 7¢ | $172.29 | $252.5 | +$80.21 | 46% 322-371 (693) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FC Bayern Munchenavg 93.1¢ | $67.29 | $68.11 | +$0.82 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$2,393.41
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$201.41
Record
50%
8825-8766 (17591)
Invested
$409.02
Value
$388.08
PnL
-$20.94
Record
71%
1287-514 (1801)
Invested
$172.29
Value
$252.5
PnL
+$80.21
Record
46%
322-371 (693)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$67.29
Value
$68.11
PnL
+$0.82
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.