Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ratiopharm Ulm, while the market favors Alba Berlin (70%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Alba Berlin vs. Ratiopharm Ulm
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Ratiopharm Ulm (100%) · Ratiopharm Ulm at 30¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Ratiopharm Ulm
3
Ratiopharm Ulm 100%
$106.7
-$14.34
31.5¢ → 30¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRatiopharm Ulm at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Alba Berlin 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Ratiopharm Ulmavg 31¢ | $45.1 | $40.73 | -$4.36 | 50% 159-157 (316) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Ratiopharm Ulmavg 31.5¢ | $63 | $34.61 | -$5.5 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Ratiopharm Ulmavg 32¢ | $35.84 | $31.36 | -$4.48 | 47% 1966-2195 (4161) |
Invested
$45.1
Value
$40.73
PnL
-$4.36
Record
50%
159-157 (316)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$63
Value
$34.61
PnL
-$5.5
Record
58%
31536-22821 (54357)
Invested
$35.84
Value
$31.36
PnL
-$4.48
Record
47%
1966-2195 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.