Zadar vs. Ilirija
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Zadar (75%) · Zadar at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Zadar
4
Zadar 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$24.35
74.5¢ → 90¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidZadar at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hannah-Montana | Zadaravg 70.9¢ | $737.1 | $852.8 | +$37.7 | 67% 183-92 (275) |
LS LSS1 | Zadaravg 82.1¢ | $412.83 | $412.51 | -$0.32 | 71% 1291-515 (1806) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Zadaravg 85.9¢ | $354.12 | $304.96 | -$49.16 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
| └ Zadar leg | Zadaravg 85.9¢ | $214.88 | $217.59 | +$2.71 | |
| └ Ilirija leg | Ilirijaavg 20.7¢ | $139.24 | $87.37 | -$51.87 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Zadaravg 74¢ | $139.67 | $57.31 | +$1.4 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Ilirijaavg 29¢ | $23.91 | $9.48 | -$14.43 | 52% 5520-5139 (10659) |
Hannah-MontanaInvested
$737.1
Value
$852.8
PnL
+$37.7
Record
67%
183-92 (275)
Invested
$412.83
Value
$412.51
PnL
-$0.32
Record
71%
1291-515 (1806)
Invested
$354.12
Value
$304.96
PnL
-$49.16
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$139.67
Value
$57.31
PnL
+$1.4
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$23.91
Value
$9.48
PnL
-$14.43
Record
52%
5520-5139 (10659)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.