Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (63%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (20%) · Up at 37¢ · $606 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 20%
$605.98
-$96.86
Research grade
NeutralUp at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Down 63%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $552.29 | $443.82 | -$108.47 | 54% 307-265 (572) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 59.8¢ | $223.22 | $143.98 | +$10.53 | 56% 2425-1891 (4316) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $10.95 | $11.58 | +$0.63 | 55% 46769-38466 (85235) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $5.37 | $3.46 | +$0.3 | 59% 981-684 (1665) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $3.15 | +$0.15 | 59% 21390-14646 (36036) |
Invested
$552.29
Value
$443.82
PnL
-$108.47
Record
54%
307-265 (572)
Invested
$223.22
Value
$143.98
PnL
+$10.53
Record
56%
2425-1891 (4316)
Invested
$10.95
Value
$11.58
PnL
+$0.63
Record
55%
46769-38466 (85235)
Invested
$5.37
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0.3
Record
59%
981-684 (1665)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0.15
Record
59%
21390-14646 (36036)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.