Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 51¢ · $68 held · ends Oct 26

Up49¢Down51¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$68.07

Combined PnL

-$10.65

Research grade

NeutralDown at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up49%

Down51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$40.57

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$6.82

Up2 traders

Total Value$27.5

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$3.83

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$36.6	$30.77	-$5.83	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$28	$25	-$3.75	55% 547-443 (990)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$10.79	$9.8	-$0.99	55% 414-332 (746)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.5	-$0.08	59% 19671-13549 (33220)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$36.6

Value

$30.77

PnL

-$5.83

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100

Invested

$28

Value

$25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

55%

547-443 (990)

gobblewobble<$100

Down

Invested

$10.79

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.99

Record

55%

414-332 (746)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.08

Record

59%

19671-13549 (33220)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.