Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8PM ET

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$320.8

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,874

Combined PnL+$48.15

Down6 traders

Total Value$182.96

Total Shares2,152

Combined PnL-$368.95

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 78.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$3.26	57% 6433-4769 (11202)
AN Anon455	Upavg 76.4¢	$363.49	$401.83	+$38.34	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$210.14	$212.15	+$2.02	74% 100978-36150 (137128)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 21.4¢	$489.4	$151.85	-$337.55	64% 56863-31743 (88606)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$79.5	$98.25	+$18.75	66% 97619-50176 (147795)
BE beeemw<$100	Upavg 76¢	$38.64	$37.37	-$1.27	79% 258-70 (328)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 13.9¢	$45.9	$21.33	-$24.57	51% 6206-5881 (12087)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$21.42	$14.99	-$6.43	51% 19436-18664 (38100)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$9.5	$9.75	+$0.25	59% 37019-26207 (63226)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 11.6¢	$4.41	$0.02	-$4.39	55% 46898-38668 (85566)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 11.5¢	$1.91	$0.01	-$1.9	55% 47975-38488 (86463)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 14.6¢	$0.79	$0	-$0.79	55% 48817-39746 (88563)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$1,004.66

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$3.26

Record

57%

6433-4769 (11202)

Anon455

Invested

$363.49

Value

$401.83

PnL

+$38.34

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

BoneOhio

Invested

$210.14

Value

$212.15

PnL

+$2.02

Record

74%

100978-36150 (137128)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$489.4

Value

$151.85

PnL

-$337.55

Record

64%

56863-31743 (88606)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$79.5

Value

$98.25

PnL

+$18.75

Record

66%

97619-50176 (147795)

beeemw<$100

Invested

$38.64

Value

$37.37

PnL

-$1.27

Record

79%

258-70 (328)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.9

Value

$21.33

PnL

-$24.57

Record

51%

6206-5881 (12087)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$21.42

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$6.43

Record

51%

19436-18664 (38100)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

37019-26207 (63226)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.41

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.39

Record

55%

46898-38668 (85566)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

55%

47975-38488 (86463)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.79

Value

PnL

-$0.79

Record

55%

48817-39746 (88563)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.