Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (27%) · Up at 79¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 27

Up79¢Down21¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 27%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$153.27

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 79¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up79%

Down21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$965.24

Total Shares1,067

Combined PnL-$137.85

Down8 traders

Total Value$140.7

Total Shares582

Combined PnL-$15.42

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$44.55	68% 96665-45045 (141710)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.9¢	$611.33	$1.9K	+$1.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.3¢	$1.7K	$534.73	$-1.2K
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 82.1¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	-$704.63	64% 56863-31743 (88606)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.7¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$301.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.1¢	$1.4K	$403.58	$-1.0K
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 63.7¢	$828.2	$724.34	-$103.86	57% 6433-4769 (11202)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$369.26	$521.52	+$152.26	59% 21408-14659 (36067)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15¢	$76.3	$366.48	+$290.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$292.96	$155.04	-$137.92
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$570.89	$241.48	-$329.41	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Up leg	Upavg 96.8¢	$156.25	$127.53	-$28.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.9¢	$466.19	$113.95	-$300.69
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$268.89	$214.57	-$54.32	74% 100978-36150 (137128)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$3.26	$44.32	+$41.06	58% 50129-36286 (86415)
DU DubaiitalyCTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$60.72	$43.34	+$36.33	49% 178-185 (363)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 18¢	$6	$26.33	+$20.33	51% 19436-18664 (38100)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$54.78	$23.63	-$31.15	51% 6206-5881 (12087)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 82¢	$33.04	$9.79	-$23.26	55% 48817-39746 (88563)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 82¢	$31.16	$7.79	-$23.37	55% 46898-38668 (85566)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 10¢	$2.44	$5.12	+$2.68	66% 97619-50176 (147795)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 82¢	$15.58	$3.9	-$11.69	55% 47975-38488 (86463)
BE beeemwCTR<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$8.86	$2.83	-$6.03	79% 258-70 (328)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,351.28

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$44.55

Record

68%

96665-45045 (141710)

Both legs:

Up$611.3325.9¢+$1.2K

Down$1,739.9268.3¢$-1.2K

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,567.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$704.63

Record

64%

56863-31743 (88606)

Both legs:

Up$1,157.6960.7¢+$301.25

Down$1,409.4382.1¢$-1.0K

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$828.2

Value

$724.34

PnL

-$103.86

Record

57%

6433-4769 (11202)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$369.26

Value

$521.52

PnL

+$152.26

Record

59%

21408-14659 (36067)

Both legs:

Up$76.315¢+$290.18

Down$292.9664.2¢-$137.92

Anon455ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$570.89

Value

$241.48

PnL

-$329.41

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Up$156.2596.8¢-$28.72

Down$466.1985.9¢-$300.69

BoneOhio

Invested

$268.89

Value

$214.57

PnL

-$54.32

Record

74%

100978-36150 (137128)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.26

Value

$44.32

PnL

+$41.06

Record

58%

50129-36286 (86415)

DubaiitalyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.72

Value

$43.34

PnL

+$36.33

Record

49%

178-185 (363)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

Value

$26.33

PnL

+$20.33

Record

51%

19436-18664 (38100)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$54.78

Value

$23.63

PnL

-$31.15

Record

51%

6206-5881 (12087)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.04

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$23.26

Record

55%

48817-39746 (88563)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.16

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$23.37

Record

55%

46898-38668 (85566)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.44

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$2.68

Record

66%

97619-50176 (147795)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.58

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$11.69

Record

55%

47975-38488 (86463)

beeemwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.86

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$6.03

Record

79%

258-70 (328)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.1%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.