Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$257.13

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 100¢

+75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,871

Combined PnL+$300.01

Down4 traders

Total Value$399.43

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$42.88

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 55.6¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$237.78	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 68.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$26.19	58% 6311-4657 (10968)
AN Anon455CTR	Downavg 75¢	$278.24	$243.33	-$34.91	56% 2294-1805 (4099)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 32.7¢	$114.25	$202.74	+$88.5	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$0	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$60.51	$52.56	-$7.95	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 89¢	$3.56	$3.54	-$0.02	55% 44458-36270 (80728)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 12¢	$1.8	$1.73	-$0.07	52% 16869-15701 (32570)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$4,238.89

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$237.78

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$1,182.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$26.19

Record

58%

6311-4657 (10968)

Anon455CTR

Down

Invested

$278.24

Value

$243.33

PnL

-$34.91

Record

56%

2294-1805 (4099)

Bonereaper

Invested

$114.25

Value

$202.74

PnL

+$88.5

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.51

Value

$52.56

PnL

-$7.95

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

44458-36270 (80728)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.