Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1PM ET

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$33.78

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 100¢

+65% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$865.1

Total Shares917

Combined PnL+$2.37

Down5 traders

Total Value$176.88

Total Shares285

Combined PnL+$31.4

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 61.4¢	$786.7	$781.57	-$5.12	57% 6405-4754 (11159)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Downavg 51.2¢	$353.92	$186.33	-$167.59	56% 2405-1881 (4286)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.5¢	$109.19	$126.55	+$17.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.2¢	$244.73	$59.78	-$184.95
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$72.98	$80.3	+$7.32	76% 70725-22107 (92832)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$44	$54.84	+$10.85	51% 6090-5751 (11841)
DU DubaiitalyCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$32.42	$49.12	+$16.7	48% 164-177 (341)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 72¢	$38.98	$42.83	+$3.85	55% 48240-39209 (87449)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$17.84	$17.84	+$0	58% 49354-35490 (84844)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$12.25	$12.25	+$0	58% 11865-8668 (20533)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 20.3¢	$3.05	$3.23	+$0.18	51% 19223-18465 (37688)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$786.7

Value

$781.57

PnL

-$5.12

Record

57%

6405-4754 (11159)

Anon455ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$353.92

Value

$186.33

PnL

-$167.59

Record

56%

2405-1881 (4286)

Both legs:

Up$109.1975.5¢+$17.36

Down$244.7351.2¢-$184.95

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$72.98

Value

$80.3

PnL

+$7.32

Record

76%

70725-22107 (92832)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44

Value

$54.84

PnL

+$10.85

Record

51%

6090-5751 (11841)

DubaiitalyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.42

Value

$49.12

PnL

+$16.7

Record

48%

164-177 (341)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.98

Value

$42.83

PnL

+$3.85

Record

55%

48240-39209 (87449)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.84

Value

$17.84

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

49354-35490 (84844)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

11865-8668 (20533)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

19223-18465 (37688)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.