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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11PM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$679.31

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares3,009
Combined PnL$-2.5K
Up4 traders
Total Value$424.31
Total Shares424
Combined PnL+$47.31
Down — 56%Up — 44%
Polkadot-FrogCTR
Down

Invested

$1,822.39

Value

—

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

64%

57093-31900 (88993)

PE
peepeepoopoo24CTR
Down

Invested

$351.64

Value

—

PnL

-$351.64

Record

57%

6441-4784 (11225)

RA
rabadabadoo
Up

Invested

$291.42

Value

$344.09

PnL

+$52.67

Record

59%

21449-14698 (36147)

DE
devonpollARB<$100
Down

Invested

$155

Value

$155

PnL

+$47.08

Record

51%

19496-18692 (38188)

Both legs:

Up$155—+$31.77
Down——+$15.3
PL
ply-pm2CTR
Down

Invested

$166.36

Value

—

PnL

-$166.36

Record

51%

6233-5908 (12141)

BO
BonereaperARB<$100
Down

Invested

$135.5

Value

$100

PnL

-$35.5

Record

66%

98231-50697 (148928)

Both legs:

Down$111.555.8¢-$111.5
Up$2424¢+$76
AN
Anon455CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$85.36

Value

—

PnL

-$85.36

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

FI
fiankeeCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$63.21

Value

—

PnL

-$63.21

Record

56%

994-795 (1789)

MO
mo-money<$100
Up

Invested

$53.58

Value

$38

PnL

-$15.58

Record

55%

49742-40383 (90125)

SH
Sharky6999<$100
Up

Invested

$22

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$0.22

Record

98%

6787-156 (6943)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Up

Invested

$10

Value

$20

PnL

+$10

Record

59%

37117-26296 (63413)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x01379312...e0b78a
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-2026-11pm-et

Traders in this Market

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.8K
PE

peepeepoopoo24

CTR

Down — $0

-$351.64
RA

rabadabadoo

Up — $344.09

+$52.67
DE

devonpoll

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$47.08
PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Down — $0

-$166.36
BO

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$35.5
AN

Anon455

CTR

Down — $0

-$85.36
FI

fiankee

CTR

Down — $0

-$63.21
MO

mo-money

Up — $38

-$15.58
SH

Sharky6999

Up — $22.22

+$0.22
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