Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
5
Down 60%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$36.24
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 87.5Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$128.94 | 57% 6399-4752 (11151) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 87.5Β’ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$170.46 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 17.1Β’ | $299.39 | β | -$299.39 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Upavg 92.5Β’ | $491.72 | $386.53 | -$105.19 | 56% 2403-1881 (4284) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 92.5Β’ | $357.48 | $386.53 | +$29.05 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 17.7Β’ | $134.24 | β | -$134.24 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 22Β’ | $45.11 | β | -$45.11 | 51% 6071-5737 (11808) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $12.3 | $24.6 | +$12.3 | 59% 36738-26033 (62771) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $12.01 | $12.13 | +$0.12 | 98% 6571-152 (6723) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 51Β’ | $2.55 | β | -$2.55 | 58% 11859-8657 (20516) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $1 | β | -$1 | 58% 49342-35483 (84825) |
Invested
$1,488.61
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$128.94
Record
57%
6399-4752 (11151)
Both legs:
Invested
$491.72
Value
$386.53
PnL
-$105.19
Record
56%
2403-1881 (4284)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.11
Value
β
PnL
-$45.11
Record
51%
6071-5737 (11808)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$24.6
PnL
+$12.3
Record
59%
36738-26033 (62771)
Invested
$12.01
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$0.12
Record
98%
6571-152 (6723)
Invested
$2.55
Value
β
PnL
-$2.55
Record
58%
11859-8657 (20516)
Invested
$1
Value
β
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
49342-35483 (84825)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Anon455
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ply-pm2
CTRDown β $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up β $24.6
Sharky6999
Up β $12.13
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown β $0
PBot-6
CTRDown β $0