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Consensus Lost βœ—

Smart money consensus was Down β€” but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

πŸ’€

Lost

Consensus Traders

5

Down 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$36.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares122
Combined PnL-$48.66
Up2 traders
Total Value$36.73
Total Shares37
Combined PnL+$12.42
Down β€” 60%Up β€” 40%

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x0ec78607...e221d5
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-2026-11am-et
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