Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9PM ET

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (43%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 26

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$797.52

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,449

Combined PnL+$456.72

Up4 traders

Total Value$373.6

Total Shares738

Combined PnL+$340.8

Down — 43%Up — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.6¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$462.63	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$66	88% 52847-6938 (59785)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$463.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.3¢	$523.3	$1.1K	+$529.99
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 67.9¢	$577.64	$583.15	+$5.5	58% 6297-4637 (10934)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$174.42	$292.11	+$117.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.9¢	$403.23	$291.03	-$112.19
AO aosdijfCTR	Upavg 1.3¢	$8.6	$334.54	+$325.94	12% 38-280 (318)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$91.07	$104.68	+$13.61	72% 51435-20417 (71852)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.9¢	$30.66	$60.34	+$29.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.8¢	$60.41	$44.33	-$16.07
BossgirlCTR<$100	Upavg 32.5¢	$17.85	$28.05	+$10.2	54% 3930-3299 (7229)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 71¢	$26.98	$18.62	-$8.17	55% 43401-35098 (78499)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$13.83	$16.09	+$2.26	52% 5848-5486 (11334)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$1.35	$8.61	+$7.26	52% 16519-15327 (31846)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5	$2.4	-$2.6	71% 21334-8554 (29888)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,920.39

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$462.63

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,138.08

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$66

Record

88%

52847-6938 (59785)

Both legs:

Down$1,614.7868.8¢-$463.99

Up$523.325.3¢+$529.99

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$577.64

Value

$583.15

PnL

+$5.5

Record

58%

6297-4637 (10934)

Both legs:

Up$174.4230.5¢+$117.7

Down$403.2367.9¢-$112.19

aosdijfCTR

Invested

$8.6

Value

$334.54

PnL

+$325.94

Record

12%

38-280 (318)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91.07

Value

$104.68

PnL

+$13.61

Record

72%

51435-20417 (71852)

Both legs:

Up$30.6625.9¢+$29.68

Down$60.4166.8¢-$16.07

BossgirlCTR<$100

Invested

$17.85

Value

$28.05

PnL

+$10.2

Record

54%

3930-3299 (7229)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$26.98

Value

$18.62

PnL

-$8.17

Record

55%

43401-35098 (78499)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$13.83

Value

$16.09

PnL

+$2.26

Record

52%

5848-5486 (11334)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

$8.61

PnL

+$7.26

Record

52%

16519-15327 (31846)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$2.6

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.