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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8PM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,651

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Up2 traders

Total Value$105.34

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$20.23

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 67.6¢	$3.4K	—	$-3.4K	88% 48649-6911 (55560)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$249.67	83% 28668-5871 (34539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$829.43	$2.7K	+$1.8K
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Downavg 68.2¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	58% 6169-4535 (10704)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$441.26	$668	+$226.74	71% 49577-20345 (69922)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$332.02	$668	+$335.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$109.24	—	-$109.24
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$173.77	—	-$173.77	52% 5827-5465 (11292)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$94	—	-$94	70% 29557-12549 (42106)
SH Sharky6999<$100	Upavg 99¢	$86.47	$87.34	+$0.87	98% 5717-133 (5850)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$23.5	—	-$23.5	71% 20772-8504 (29276)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 82¢	$41.04	—	-$41.04	55% 42809-34660 (77469)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 28¢	$20.52	—	-$20.52	55% 39952-33285 (73237)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 28¢	$20.52	—	-$20.52	56% 40908-32497 (73405)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 10¢	$3.3	$18	+$19.36	52% 16382-15161 (31543)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$3,445.72

Value

—

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

88%

48649-6911 (55560)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$2,419.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$249.67

Record

83%

28668-5871 (34539)

Both legs:

Down$1,589.9759.6¢$-1.6K

Up$829.4331.1¢+$1.8K

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Invested

$1,059.74

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

6169-4535 (10704)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$441.26

Value

$668

PnL

+$226.74

Record

71%

49577-20345 (69922)

Both legs:

Up$332.0249.7¢+$335.98

Down$109.2441.9¢-$109.24

Invested

$173.77

Value

—

PnL

-$173.77

Record

52%

5827-5465 (11292)

Invested

$94

Value

—

PnL

-$94

Record

70%

29557-12549 (42106)

Sharky6999<$100

Invested

$86.47

Value

$87.34

PnL

+$0.87

Record

98%

5717-133 (5850)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

—

PnL

-$23.5

Record

71%

20772-8504 (29276)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$41.04

Value

—

PnL

-$41.04

Record

55%

42809-34660 (77469)

Invested

$20.52

Value

—

PnL

-$20.52

Record

55%

39952-33285 (73237)

Invested

$20.52

Value

—

PnL

-$20.52

Record

56%

40908-32497 (73405)

Invested

$3.3

Value

$18

PnL

+$19.36

Record

52%

16382-15161 (31543)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4ca81054...75cc73

Slug

bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-2026-8pm-et

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $0

PBot-6

Down — $0

Sharky6999

Up — $87.34

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

mo-money

Down — $0

almach

Down — $0

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