Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6AM ET

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$1.69

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 2 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$26.17

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$1.69

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 54.1¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$10.75	86% 42207-6788 (48995)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$346.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$356.76
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 92.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$44.33	82% 26523-5688 (32211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 4¢	$43.6	$634.67	+$591.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.3¢	$1.0K	$467.01	-$546.73
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$644.2	$812.24	+$168.04	58% 6110-4495 (10605)
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.6¢	$139.68	$455.77	+$316.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$504.52	$356.47	-$148.05
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 45¢	$16.66	$15.92	-$0.74	52% 5618-5221 (10839)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 47¢	$11.2	$10.25	-$0.95	68% 24550-11742 (36292)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,986.84

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$10.75

Record

86%

42207-6788 (48995)

Both legs:

Up$1,325.1745.6¢+$346.01

Down$1,661.6754.1¢-$356.76

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,057.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$44.33

Record

82%

26523-5688 (32211)

Both legs:

Up$43.64¢+$591.07

Down$1,013.7592.3¢-$546.73

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$644.2

Value

$812.24

PnL

+$168.04

Record

58%

6110-4495 (10605)

Both legs:

Up$139.6817.6¢+$316.09

Down$504.5260.2¢-$148.05

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$16.66

Value

$15.92

PnL

-$0.74

Record

52%

5618-5221 (10839)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.25

PnL

-$0.95

Record

68%

24550-11742 (36292)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 2 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.