Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$440.28

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 100¢

+62% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,482

Combined PnL-$448.56

Up1 trader

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares53

Combined PnL+$8.28

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 58.6¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$277.73	87% 47963-6867 (54830)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 70.9¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$224.35	58% 6160-4528 (10688)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$299.24	$327.38	+$28.14	59% 19666-13545 (33211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$134.89	$185.32	+$50.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$164.35	$142.06	-$22.29
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$150	+$0	83% 28367-5811 (34178)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	$78.75	+$3.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$75	$71.25	-$3.75
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$59.07	$81.13	+$22.06	52% 5773-5390 (11163)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 76¢	$43.4	$57.08	+$13.68	56% 2071-1630 (3701)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 86.2¢	$34.48	$39.98	+$5.5	56% 41335-32819 (74154)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$33.23	$37.98	+$4.75	55% 38170-31256 (69426)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 44.4¢	$22.05	$29.58	+$7.53	56% 39355-30609 (69964)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 45¢	$3.23	$3.23	-$0	70% 28789-12461 (41250)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 8.6¢	$7.2	$0.03	+$8.28	52% 16061-14851 (30912)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$4,271.07

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$277.73

Record

87%

47963-6867 (54830)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$1,439.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$224.35

Record

58%

6160-4528 (10688)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$299.24

Value

$327.38

PnL

+$28.14

Record

59%

19666-13545 (33211)

Both legs:

Up$134.8949.5¢+$50.43

Down$164.3552.1¢-$22.29

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$0

Record

83%

28367-5811 (34178)

Both legs:

Invested

$59.07

Value

$81.13

PnL

+$22.06

Record

52%

5773-5390 (11163)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$43.4

Value

$57.08

PnL

+$13.68

Record

56%

2071-1630 (3701)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$34.48

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$5.5

Record

56%

41335-32819 (74154)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$33.23

Value

$37.98

PnL

+$4.75

Record

55%

38170-31256 (69426)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$22.05

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$7.53

Record

56%

39355-30609 (69964)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0

Record

70%

28789-12461 (41250)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$8.28

Record

52%

16061-14851 (30912)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.