Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$479.8

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,708

Combined PnL+$479.91

Up1 trader

Total Value$1.09

Total Shares18

Combined PnL-$0.11

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63¢	$748.24	$1.1K	+$345.79	86% 39944-6718 (46662)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 74.4¢	$598.7	$703.05	+$104.35	58% 6067-4456 (10523)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 96.6¢	$439.05	$400.19	-$38.86	82% 25791-5637 (31428)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 69.3¢	$327.24	$353.57	+$26.33	59% 18579-12793 (31372)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$26.14	$43.54	+$17.4	57% 34248-25643 (59891)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$23.72	$37.1	+$13.37	52% 5547-5155 (10702)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 57¢	$21.66	$36.29	+$14.63	57% 35989-27141 (63130)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 58¢	$22.58	$19.49	-$3.1	56% 33384-26147 (59531)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 6.8¢	$1.2	$1.09	-$0.11	52% 15316-14141 (29457)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$748.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$345.79

Record

86%

39944-6718 (46662)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$598.7

Value

$703.05

PnL

+$104.35

Record

58%

6067-4456 (10523)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$439.05

Value

$400.19

PnL

-$38.86

Record

82%

25791-5637 (31428)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$327.24

Value

$353.57

PnL

+$26.33

Record

59%

18579-12793 (31372)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$26.14

Value

$43.54

PnL

+$17.4

Record

57%

34248-25643 (59891)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$23.72

Value

$37.1

PnL

+$13.37

Record

52%

5547-5155 (10702)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$21.66

Value

$36.29

PnL

+$14.63

Record

57%

35989-27141 (63130)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$22.58

Value

$19.49

PnL

-$3.1

Record

56%

33384-26147 (59531)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

15316-14141 (29457)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.