Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$10.02

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 99.6¢

+48% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,824

Combined PnL+$9.77

Up1 trader

Total Value$5

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.25

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$61.38	87% 47582-6858 (54440)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 74.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$41.31	58% 6156-4519 (10675)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 74.9¢	$172.36	$176.42	+$4.06	59% 19634-13508 (33142)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 71.1¢	$35.54	$42.71	+$7.17	56% 39349-30597 (69946)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$36.01	$36.03	+$0.01	55% 38143-31228 (69371)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$23	$36.01	+$13.01	52% 5732-5342 (11074)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 71¢	$26.98	$32.49	+$5.51	56% 41323-32809 (74132)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 85¢	$12.75	$12.83	+$0.07	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$5	+$0.25	52% 16033-14835 (30868)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,945.63

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$61.38

Record

87%

47582-6858 (54440)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$1,059.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$41.31

Record

58%

6156-4519 (10675)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$172.36

Value

$176.42

PnL

+$4.06

Record

59%

19634-13508 (33142)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$35.54

Value

$42.71

PnL

+$7.17

Record

56%

39349-30597 (69946)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$36.01

Value

$36.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

38143-31228 (69371)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$23

Value

$36.01

PnL

+$13.01

Record

52%

5732-5342 (11074)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$26.98

Value

$32.49

PnL

+$5.51

Record

56%

41323-32809 (74132)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$12.75

Value

$12.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

16033-14835 (30868)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.