Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$112.33

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$143.16

Total Shares188

Combined PnL+$30.76

Up4 traders

Total Value$67.11

Total Shares258

Combined PnL-$143.09

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$272.4	87% 47549-6839 (54388)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$930.37	$1.8K	+$878.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.9¢	$1.2K	$586.09	-$606.27
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$200.97	58% 6152-4517 (10669)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.6¢	$705.26	$1.2K	+$466.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.7¢	$703.09	$437.96	-$265.13
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$894.81	$863.64	-$31.18	83% 28182-5775 (33957)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$327.74	$635.08	+$307.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$567.07	$228.55	-$338.52
DE devonpollCTR	Downavg 58.5¢	$108.6	$137.17	+$28.57	52% 16028-14827 (30855)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$121.83	$106.66	-$15.17	52% 5710-5327 (11037)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$51.29	$83	+$31.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.5¢	$70.54	$23.66	-$46.88
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$122.67	$32.22	-$90.45	79% 54267-14082 (68349)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$55.97	$18.55	-$37.43	55% 37966-30976 (68942)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$31.02	$15.94	-$15.08	56% 41155-32532 (73687)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$3.8	$5.99	+$2.19	70% 28236-12359 (40595)
AN Anon455<$100	Upavg 34¢	$0.53	$0.41	-$0.13	56% 2033-1584 (3617)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$2,122.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$272.4

Record

87%

47549-6839 (54388)

Both legs:

Down$930.3738.1¢+$878.67

Up$1,192.3552.9¢-$606.27

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,408.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$200.97

Record

58%

6152-4517 (10669)

Both legs:

Down$705.2644.6¢+$466.09

Up$703.0941.7¢-$265.13

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$894.81

Value

$863.64

PnL

-$31.18

Record

83%

28182-5775 (33957)

Both legs:

Down$327.7438.2¢+$307.34

Up$567.0764.5¢-$338.52

devonpollCTR

Down

Invested

$108.6

Value

$137.17

PnL

+$28.57

Record

52%

16028-14827 (30855)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$121.83

Value

$106.66

PnL

-$15.17

Record

52%

5710-5327 (11037)

Both legs:

Down$51.2945.7¢+$31.71

Up$70.5477.5¢-$46.88

BoneOhio

Invested

$122.67

Value

$32.22

PnL

-$90.45

Record

79%

54267-14082 (68349)

almach<$100

Invested

$55.97

Value

$18.55

PnL

-$37.43

Record

55%

37966-30976 (68942)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$31.02

Value

$15.94

PnL

-$15.08

Record

56%

41155-32532 (73687)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$2.19

Record

70%

28236-12359 (40595)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.13

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.