Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10PM ET

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (56%) · Down at 97¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 26

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$237.78

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 96.7¢

+46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,320

Combined PnL-$243.7

Up4 traders

Total Value$27.95

Total Shares121

Combined PnL+$5.92

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 60.2¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$195.65	88% 52847-6938 (59785)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 78¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$530.25	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 62¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$7.84	58% 6297-4637 (10934)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 51.4¢	$381.07	$456.57	+$75.5	72% 51435-20417 (71852)
BossgirlARB<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$48.74	$77	+$28.26	54% 3930-3299 (7229)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$21.56	$55.44	+$33.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.3¢	$27.18	$21.56	-$5.62
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$36.39	$43.95	+$7.56	52% 5848-5486 (11334)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$15.5	$15.75	+$0.25	20% 14378-58193 (72571)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 8.1¢	$4.1	$6.33	+$2.23	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$4.62	$3.38	+$3.45	52% 16519-15327 (31846)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	71% 21334-8554 (29888)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,488.55

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$195.65

Record

88%

52847-6938 (59785)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$3,037.3

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$530.25

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$1,539.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$7.84

Record

58%

6297-4637 (10934)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$381.07

Value

$456.57

PnL

+$75.5

Record

72%

51435-20417 (71852)

BossgirlARB<$100

Invested

$48.74

Value

$77

PnL

+$28.26

Record

54%

3930-3299 (7229)

Both legs:

Invested

$36.39

Value

$43.95

PnL

+$7.56

Record

52%

5848-5486 (11334)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

20%

14378-58193 (72571)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$6.33

PnL

+$2.23

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$3.45

Record

52%

16519-15327 (31846)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.