Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 28?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $862 held · ends Oct 28

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$861.54

Combined PnL

-$205.85

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 97.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$715.83

Total Shares730

Combined PnL+$40.87

Yes1 trader

Total Value$145.71

Total Shares4,483

Combined PnL-$246.72

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SS ssddssd	Noavg 88.8¢	$318.33	$347.05	+$28.71	51% 314-299 (613)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Noavg 94¢	$571.62	$343.77	+$11.9	57% 748-553 (1301)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Yesavg 8.8¢	$392.43	$145.71	-$246.72	65% 2050-1097 (3147)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$20.08	$20.14	+$0.2	59% 788-559 (1347)
0X 0xDB5<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$4.81	$4.87	+$0.06	58% 1886-1364 (3250)

ssddssd

Invested

$318.33

Value

$347.05

PnL

+$28.71

Record

51%

314-299 (613)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Invested

$571.62

Value

$343.77

PnL

+$11.9

Record

57%

748-553 (1301)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Yes

Invested

$392.43

Value

$145.71

PnL

-$246.72

Record

65%

2050-1097 (3147)

gobblewobble<$100

Invested

$20.08

Value

$20.14

PnL

+$0.2

Record

59%

788-559 (1347)

0xDB5<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

1886-1364 (3250)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.