Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$122.1

Smart Money Entry

93.4¢ → 97.1¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,032

Combined PnL+$122.96

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.85

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 93.2¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$74.59	66% 1023-525 (1548)
SS ssddssd	Noavg 93¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$41.95	49% 270-279 (549)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 95.4¢	$314.2	$318.79	+$6.37	53% 908-817 (1725)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$49.82	$49.87	+$0.05	55% 414-334 (748)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$0.93	$0.05	-$0.85	56% 558-447 (1005)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$1,842.56

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$74.59

Record

66%

1023-525 (1548)

ssddssd

Invested

$1,571.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$41.95

Record

49%

270-279 (549)

0xDB5

Invested

$314.2

Value

$318.79

PnL

+$6.37

Record

53%

908-817 (1725)

gobblewobble<$100

Invested

$49.82

Value

$49.87

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

414-334 (748)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.85

Record

56%

558-447 (1005)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.