Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 26?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $24K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$23.9K
$197.67
96.8¢ → 98.2¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.0K | $18.5K | +$110.75 | 67% 822-408 (1230) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$5.4 | 53% 898-795 (1693) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$1.37 | 55% 547-443 (990) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 86¢ | $602 | $683.2 | +$82.6 | 49% 250-259 (509) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $97.3 | $97.6 | +$0.3 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
Invested
$19,004.56
Value
$18.5K
PnL
+$110.75
Record
67%
822-408 (1230)
Invested
$3,307.83
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$5.4
Record
53%
898-795 (1693)
Invested
$1,220.75
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$1.37
Record
55%
547-443 (990)
Invested
$602
Value
$683.2
PnL
+$82.6
Record
49%
250-259 (509)
Invested
$97.3
Value
$97.6
PnL
+$0.3
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.