Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$8.1K
-$10.88
74.7¢ → 79¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $3.6K | $6.1K | +$2.5K | 65% 1516-806 (2322) |
EA easypredict | Noavg 74¢ | $3.8K | $1.5K | $-2.3K | 56% 222-177 (399) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $384.6 | $381.59 | -$3.01 | 56% 1363-1054 (2417) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $369.56 | $129.46 | -$240.09 | 57% 698-522 (1220) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.05 | $11.68 | +$9.63 | 57% 661-503 (1164) |
Invested
$3,586.04
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
65%
1516-806 (2322)
Invested
$3,791.29
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
56%
222-177 (399)
Invested
$384.6
Value
$381.59
PnL
-$3.01
Record
56%
1363-1054 (2417)
Invested
$369.56
Value
$129.46
PnL
-$240.09
Record
57%
698-522 (1220)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$11.68
PnL
+$9.63
Record
57%
661-503 (1164)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.