Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 27?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.2K
$271.36
76.1¢ → 84¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 75.2¢ | $2.8K | $3.1K | +$312.76 | 66% 1023-525 (1548) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 78.8¢ | $683.09 | $602.57 | -$80.52 | 56% 558-447 (1005) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 78.4¢ | $392.09 | $432.4 | +$40.32 | 55% 414-334 (748) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $7.91 | $7.53 | -$0.37 | 53% 908-817 (1725) |
EA easypredictCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $1.88 | $1.06 | -$0.83 | 55% 134-109 (243) |
Invested
$2,830.99
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$312.76
Record
66%
1023-525 (1548)
Invested
$683.09
Value
$602.57
PnL
-$80.52
Record
56%
558-447 (1005)
Invested
$392.09
Value
$432.4
PnL
+$40.32
Record
55%
414-334 (748)
Invested
$7.91
Value
$7.53
PnL
-$0.37
Record
53%
908-817 (1725)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0.83
Record
55%
134-109 (243)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.