Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 88¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$22.6K
-$176.65
84¢ → 88.1¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 85¢ | $17.1K | $16.0K | $-1.1K | 65% 1516-806 (2322) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 82¢ | $2.7K | $3.1K | +$426.4 | 57% 698-522 (1220) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 80¢ | $1.7K | $2.0K | +$313.62 | 64% 585-335 (920) |
SS ssddssd | Yesavg 81.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$204.82 | 51% 306-294 (600) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 89.6¢ | $190.9 | $190.74 | -$0.15 | 56% 1363-1054 (2417) |
Invested
$17,088.52
Value
$16.0K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
65%
1516-806 (2322)
Invested
$2,651.83
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$426.4
Record
57%
698-522 (1220)
Invested
$1,654.06
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$313.62
Record
64%
585-335 (920)
Invested
$1,223.21
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$204.82
Record
51%
306-294 (600)
Invested
$190.9
Value
$190.74
PnL
-$0.15
Record
56%
1363-1054 (2417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.