Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 27?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Yes93¢No7¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$298.84

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 92.8¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,564

Combined PnL+$252.76

No1 trader

Total Value$70.3

Total Shares976

Combined PnL+$46.08

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SS ssddssd	Yesavg 84.4¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$246.99	49% 245-253 (498)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 92.9¢	$823.09	$822.21	-$0.89	53% 886-790 (1676)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$66.29	$72.87	+$6.66	55% 405-326 (731)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$24.22	$70.3	+$46.08	55% 543-440 (983)

ssddssd

Yes

Invested

$3,042.59

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$246.99

Record

49%

245-253 (498)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$823.09

Value

$822.21

PnL

-$0.89

Record

53%

886-790 (1676)

gobblewobble<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.29

Value

$72.87

PnL

+$6.66

Record

55%

405-326 (731)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100

Invested

$24.22

Value

$70.3

PnL

+$46.08

Record

55%

543-440 (983)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.2%

92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.