Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 98¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 28

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$72.87

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 97.8¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,388

Combined PnL+$102.57

No1 trader

Total Value$42.51

Total Shares1,932

Combined PnL-$29.7

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 95.9¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$100.53	65% 2304-1251 (3555)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 97.5¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$7.28	80% 226-55 (281)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 97.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$5.24	59% 2126-1500 (3626)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$72.21	$42.51	-$29.7	59% 997-689 (1686)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$4,588.75

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$100.53

Record

65%

2304-1251 (3555)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$2,365.83

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$7.28

Record

80%

226-55 (281)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$1,272.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$5.24

Record

59%

2126-1500 (3626)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100

Invested

$72.21

Value

$42.51

PnL

-$29.7

Record

59%

997-689 (1686)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.