Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 27?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 98¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 27

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$9.96

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 97.6¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares15,185

Combined PnL+$4.08

No1 trader

Total Value$38.38

Total Shares1,081

Combined PnL+$5.89

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 96.5¢	$15.0K	$14.4K	-$4.11	68% 776-373 (1149)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 93.2¢	$180	$173.61	+$5.85	62% 382-234 (616)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Yesavg 91.1¢	$36.44	$39.04	+$2.34	55% 379-310 (689)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$32.49	$38.38	+$5.89	55% 534-431 (965)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$14,964.54

Value

$14.4K

PnL

-$4.11

Record

68%

776-373 (1149)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$173.61

PnL

+$5.85

Record

62%

382-234 (616)

gobblewobble<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.44

Value

$39.04

PnL

+$2.34

Record

55%

379-310 (689)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100

Invested

$32.49

Value

$38.38

PnL

+$5.89

Record

55%

534-431 (965)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.