Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 26

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

-$416.48

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 98.2¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares17,743

Combined PnL-$521.24

No1 trader

Total Value$280.27

Total Shares3,339

Combined PnL+$104.76

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 97¢	$16.0K	$15.5K	-$503.41	65% 1216-662 (1878)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 97.9¢	$2.6K	$628.77	+$4.18	54% 1025-874 (1899)
balthazar	Yesavg 97.3¢	$389.2	$376	-$13.2	64% 14982-8561 (23543)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR	Noavg 2.8¢	$175.68	$280.27	+$104.76	57% 612-471 (1083)
Facaie	Yesavg 98.4¢	$196.8	$188	-$8.8	94% 695-42 (737)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$16,046.15

Value

$15.5K

PnL

-$503.41

Record

65%

1216-662 (1878)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$2,553.39

Value

$628.77

PnL

+$4.18

Record

54%

1025-874 (1899)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$389.2

Value

$376

PnL

-$13.2

Record

64%

14982-8561 (23543)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR

Invested

$175.68

Value

$280.27

PnL

+$104.76

Record

57%

612-471 (1083)

Facaie

Yes

Invested

$196.8

Value

$188

PnL

-$8.8

Record

94%

695-42 (737)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.