Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 27

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$180.05

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$16.6K

Total Shares16,613

Combined PnL+$181.77

No1 trader

Total Value$0.9

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$1.72

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 98.3¢	$11.2K	$11.1K	+$172.89	65% 2304-1251 (3555)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 99.6¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	+$2.89	59% 997-689 (1686)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 99.4¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$6.18	59% 2126-1500 (3626)
Facaie	Yesavg 99.7¢	$508.66	$508.47	-$0.19	92% 1195-102 (1297)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$2.62	$0.9	-$1.72	62% 20228-12642 (32870)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$11,157.19

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$172.89

Record

65%

2304-1251 (3555)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$3,617.15

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$2.89

Record

59%

997-689 (1686)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$1,592.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$6.18

Record

59%

2126-1500 (3626)

Facaie

Yes

Invested

$508.66

Value

$508.47

PnL

-$0.19

Record

92%

1195-102 (1297)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.62

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$1.72

Record

62%

20228-12642 (32870)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.