Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$0.52

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,760

Combined PnL-$11.31

No2 traders

Total Value$17.98

Total Shares799

Combined PnL+$10.79

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 98¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$7.48	65% 1216-662 (1878)
Facaie	Yesavg 99.6¢	$227.84	$223.61	-$4.23	94% 695-42 (737)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 99.7¢	$165.94	$165.24	+$0.4	57% 612-471 (1083)
TH thismonthCTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$4.4	$9	+$4.6	43% 499-654 (1153)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 0.7¢	$2.79	$8.98	+$6.19	64% 14982-8561 (23543)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$3,307.7

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$7.48

Record

65%

1216-662 (1878)

Facaie

Yes

Invested

$227.84

Value

$223.61

PnL

-$4.23

Record

94%

695-42 (737)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$165.94

Value

$165.24

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

612-471 (1083)

thismonthCTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

PnL

+$4.6

Record

43%

499-654 (1153)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.79

Value

$8.98

PnL

+$6.19

Record

64%

14982-8561 (23543)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.