Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Patro Eisden Maasmechelen win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 2.9¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$289.04

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 2.9¢

-95% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,983

Combined PnL-$62.16

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,145

Combined PnL+$351.2

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$20	47% 2015-2254 (4269)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 40¢	$951.76	$929.04	-$22.72	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 45.9¢	$355.48	$729.67	+$374.19	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
us391CTR	Noavg 53¢	$368.94	$368.94	+$0	52% 1362-1272 (2634)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 55.1¢	$263.55	$181.39	-$82.16	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$10.2	$10.3	+$0.1	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
MA MartyMcFox<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$6.72	$6.35	-$0.37	73% 3485-1278 (4763)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$20

Record

47%

2015-2254 (4269)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$951.76

Value

$929.04

PnL

-$22.72

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$355.48

Value

$729.67

PnL

+$374.19

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

us391CTR

Invested

$368.94

Value

$368.94

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1362-1272 (2634)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$263.55

Value

$181.39

PnL

-$82.16

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

MartyMcFox<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$0.37

Record

73%

3485-1278 (4763)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.1%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2315.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2415.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.