Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Union Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 27¢ · $199 held · ends Oct 25

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$199.37

Combined PnL

$3.79

Smart Money Entry

26.3¢ → 26.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$195.72

Total Shares725

Combined PnL+$3.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.65

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.03

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 27¢	$112.11	$112.2	+$0.09	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$51.92	$56.07	+$4.15	50% 192-189 (381)
cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$25	$25.96	-$0.48	51% 237-227 (464)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.65	-$0.03	57% 30-23 (53)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$1.44	$1.49	+$0.06	57% 1491-1104 (2595)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$112.11

Value

$112.2

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Invested

$51.92

Value

$56.07

PnL

+$4.15

Record

50%

192-189 (381)

cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$25.96

PnL

-$0.48

Record

51%

237-227 (464)

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

30-23 (53)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.49

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.