Spread: Union Saint-Gilloise (-1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cercle Brugge (67%) · Cercle Brugge at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Union Saint-Gilloise17¢Cercle Brugge83¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cercle Brugge

Consensus Traders

Cercle Brugge 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$21.34

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 83¢

+50% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCercle Brugge at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cercle Brugge

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Union Saint-Gilloise17%

Cercle Brugge83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cercle Brugge4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,928

Combined PnL-$12.95

Union Saint-Gilloise2 traders

Total Value$503.37

Total Shares1,007

Combined PnL-$8.39

Cercle Brugge — 67%Union Saint-Gilloise — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Cercle Bruggeavg 62¢	$768.18	$749.6	-$18.58	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Cercle Bruggeavg 51¢	$600.78	$606.67	+$5.89	48% 115-124 (239)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Union Saint-Gilloiseavg 51¢	$485	$475.49	-$9.51	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Union Saint-Gilloiseavg 49¢	$296	$297	+$1	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
└ Union Saint-Gilloise leg	Union Saint-Gilloiseavg 49¢	$196	$194	-$2
└ Cercle Brugge leg	Cercle Bruggeavg 50¢	$100	$103	+$3
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Cercle Bruggeavg 50¢	$254.3	$254.3	+$0	47% 1984-2215 (4199)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Union Saint-Gilloiseavg 48¢	$26.76	$27.88	+$1.11	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Cercle Bruggeavg 55¢	$1.47	$1.21	-$0.25	50% 7794-7854 (15648)

UpTheBlues

Cercle Brugge

Invested

$768.18

Value

$749.6

PnL

-$18.58

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Cercle Brugge

Invested

$600.78

Value

$606.67

PnL

+$5.89

Record

48%

115-124 (239)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Union Saint-Gilloise

Invested

$485

Value

$475.49

PnL

-$9.51

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Union Saint-Gilloise

Invested

$296

Value

$297

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

Both legs:

Union Saint-Gilloise$19649¢-$2

Cercle Brugge$10050¢+$3

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Cercle Brugge

Invested

$254.3

Value

$254.3

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1984-2215 (4199)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Union Saint-Gilloise

Invested

$26.76

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

LuckyLoo<$100

Cercle Brugge

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

Research grade

NeutralCercle Brugge at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Cercle Brugge

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cercle Brugge wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.