Exact Score: Union Saint-Gilloise 0 - 1 Cercle Brugge?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $702 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$701.8
-$30
92.5¢ → 88.1¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $707.69 | $674.03 | -$33.66 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $19.89 | $24.05 | +$4.16 | 51% 6747-6475 (13222) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $4.22 | $3.72 | -$0.5 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.