KAA Gent vs. RSC Anderlecht: O/U 4.5

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$750.16

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 73¢

-11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,222

Combined PnL+$750.16

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 81.5¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$762.65	72% 1860-733 (2593)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 25.6¢	$685.04	$661.56	-$23.48	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.6¢	$426.94	$449.86	+$22.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 89¢	$258.1	$211.7	-$46.4
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 88¢	$70.4	$58.4	-$12	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 88¢	$2.86	$2.37	-$0.49	56% 6406-5129 (11535)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$4,139.23

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$762.65

Record

72%

1860-733 (2593)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$685.04

Value

$661.56

PnL

-$23.48

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

Both legs:

Over$426.9425.6¢+$22.92

Under$258.189¢-$46.4

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$70.4

Value

$58.4

PnL

-$12

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.49

Record

56%

6406-5129 (11535)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.