KAA Gent vs. RSC Anderlecht: O/U 2.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 76¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$730.38

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 76¢

+45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,573

Combined PnL-$742.54

Over2 traders

Total Value$542.25

Total Shares1,204

Combined PnL+$12.16

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 43.9¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$97.85	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$35.61
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$62.24
RN1	Underavg 52¢	$1.6K	$898.55	-$739.66	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 44¢	$518.32	$530.1	+$11.78	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
FO foooool	Underavg 54¢	$149.58	$145.43	-$4.16	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 61.3¢	$82.82	$84.62	+$1.8	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Underavg 53.5¢	$27.54	$27.03	-$0.51	92% 2336-199 (2535)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$11.77	$12.15	+$0.38	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 72¢	$1.08	$1.07	-$0.01	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,549.32

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$97.85

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Both legs:

Over$1,470.4543.9¢+$35.61

Under$1,078.8752¢+$62.24

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,638.21

Value

$898.55

PnL

-$739.66

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$518.32

Value

$530.1

PnL

+$11.78

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

foooool

Under

Invested

$149.58

Value

$145.43

PnL

-$4.16

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$82.82

Value

$84.62

PnL

+$1.8

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

thatsabing0<$100

Under

Invested

$27.54

Value

$27.03

PnL

-$0.51

Record

92%

2336-199 (2535)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.77

Value

$12.15

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.